Markets/Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 04:56 AM UTC

Closes April 29, 2026

Polymarket Price

3%YES

97%NO

Volume 24h

$770K

Liquidity

$250K

Bid / Ask

3% / 4%

Spread

0.40pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after…

June 2026

Full event →

no change in Fed interest rates after the Apr

95%

no change in Fed interest rates after the Jun

85%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bp

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bp

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ b

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bp

Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic ra

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ b

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ b

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ b

10 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 3%99%

Buy YES@ 3¢

-7.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 97¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly7.7%

½ Kelly3.8%

Buy NO—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 7.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $770K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on April 29, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/669663

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