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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 22?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 22?

Closes March 22, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

99%YES
1%NO

Volume 24h

$32K

Liquidity

$22K

Bid / Ask

99% / 99%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

98%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-1.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March?

March

Full event →
above $62,000 on March 22?
100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2AM ET
100%
above $64,000 on March 22?
100%
above $66,000 on March 22?
99%
above $64,000 on March 23?
97%
above $68,000 on March 22?
90%
above $66,000 on March 23?
88%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?
47%
above $70,000 on March 22?
19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?
14%
$80,000 in March?
11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?
6%
above $74,000 on March 23?
4%
$85,000 in March?
2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?
2%
above $76,000 on March 23?
2%
$90,000 in March?
1%
above $72,000 on March 22?
1%
above $78,000 on March 23?
1%
$95,000 in March?
1%
$100,000 in March?
0%
above $80,000 on March 23?
0%
$105,000 in March?
0%
$150,000 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?
0%
$110,000 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March?
0%
above $84,000 on March 23?
0%
above $82,000 on March 23?
0%
above $74,000 on March 22?
0%
above $76,000 on March 22?
0%
less than $62,000 on March 22?
0%
above $78,000 on March 22?
0%
$86,000 March 16-22?
0%
above $80,000 on March 22?
0%
greater than $80,000 on March 22?
0%
above $82,000 on March 22?
0%

37 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+9.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

90% YES

Mar 15, 2026

Trough probability

84% YES — lowest in period

Mar 19, 2026

Biggest move: -9.2pp

93% → 84%

Mar 19, 2026

Peak probability

100% YES — highest in period

Mar 21, 2026

Current

99% YES (+0.8pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 99%99%
Buy YES@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 22?" at 99% YES / 1% NO. In the last 24 hours, $32K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on March 22, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 22?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 99%, NO 1%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1598798

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Venue Divergence

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Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.

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