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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 23?

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 23?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 09:39 AM UTC

Closes March 23, 2026

Polymarket Price

23%YES

78%NO

Volume 24h

$6K

Liquidity

$23K

Bid / Ask

11% / 13%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

11%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?

March

above $62,000 on March 22?

above $64,000 on March 22?

above $66,000 on March 22?

above $66,000 on March 23?

above $68,000 on March 22?

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?

above $70,000 on March 23?

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?

above $72,000 on March 23?

8%

$80,000 in March?

above $70,000 on March 22?

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?

$85,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?

above $74,000 on March 23?

$90,000 in March?

above $76,000 on March 23?

$95,000 in March?

$100,000 in March?

above $78,000 on March 23?

$105,000 in March?

$150,000 in March?

above $72,000 on March 22?

$110,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?

above $80,000 on March 23?

above $82,000 on March 23?

less than $62,000 on March 22?

above $74,000 on March 22?

above $76,000 on March 22?

above $78,000 on March 22?

$86,000 March 16-22?

$80,000 March 16-22?

above $80,000 on March 22?

above $84,000 on March 23?

greater than $80,000 on March 22?

above $82,000 on March 22?

38 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Price History

-40.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

50% YES

Mar 16, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

45%

Mar 18, 2026

Biggest move: -25.5pp

71% → 45%

Mar 18, 2026

Peak probability

78% YES — highest in period

Mar 17, 2026

Current

10% YES (-1.5pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

%

1%Market: YES 23%99%

Buy YES@ 23¢

Edge

+2.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 78¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 23?" at 23% YES / 77% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 23?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 23%, NO 77%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1607684

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Go Deeper

Entity Hub

All related markets, signals, and news in one view.

Forecaster Signals

See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.

Venue Divergence

Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.

Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.

Event Cluster

All markets about the same event across venues.

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