Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 25?
Closes March 25, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$14K
Liquidity
$24K
Bid / Ask
4% / 4%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
4%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 23?
March
29 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
4% YES
Mar 23, 2026
Current
5% YES (-0.1pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+14.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 25?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $14K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on March 25, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 25?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1640449
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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