Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 24?

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 24?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 11:35 PM UTC

Closes March 24, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

90%YES

10%NO

Volume 24h

$21K

Liquidity

$24K

Bid / Ask

90% / 91%

Spread

0.80pp

Expert Signal

90%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 23?

March

Full event →

24 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+0.7pp

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 90%99%

Buy YES@ 90¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 10¢

Edge

+4.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%

½ Kelly0.2%

Buy NO—+4.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 24?" at 90% YES / 10% NO. In the last 24 hours, $21K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 90%. The bid-ask spread is 0.80 percentage points. The market closes on March 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 24?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 90%, NO 10%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1628625

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