ForecastMind
Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on March 23?
Share on X

Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on March 23?

Closes March 23, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES
98%NO

Volume 24h

$17K

Liquidity

$17K

Bid / Ask

2% / 3%

Spread

0.40pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Bitcoin Up or Down on March 22?

March

Full event →
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on March 22?
69%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 March 16-22?
64%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?
56%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on March 22?
25%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?
19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on March 22?
10%
$80,000 in March?
9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 16-22?
7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?
7%
$71,000 on March 22?
6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 22?
5%
$85,000 in March?
2%
less than $64,000 on March 23?
2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?
2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 16-22?
2%
$72,000 on March 22?
2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 16-22?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 22?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on March 22?
1%
$90,000 in March?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March?
1%
$73,000 on March 22?
1%
$95,000 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March?
0%
$74,000 on March 22?
0%
$100,000 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on March 22?
0%
$76,000 on March 22?
0%
$150,000 in March?
0%
$105,000 in March?
0%
$110,000 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March?
0%
$75,000 on March 22?
0%
$77,000 on March 22?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 16-22?
0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 22?
0%
less than $62,000 on March 22?
0%

40 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+0.0pp

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 2%99%
Buy YES@ 2¢

-14.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 98¢
Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly14.9%
½ Kelly7.4%
Buy NO—+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 14.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on March 23?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $17K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on March 23?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1607578

Go Deeper

⬡

Entity Hub

All related markets, signals, and news in one view.

◎

Forecaster Signals

See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.

⇄

Venue Divergence

Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.

~

Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.

⊕

Event Cluster

All markets about the same event across venues.

↓

Download 90d CSV

Full price history for your own analysis.