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Markets/Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 22?
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Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 22?

Closes March 23, 2026

Polymarket Price

3%YES
97%NO

Volume 24h

$21K

Liquidity

$13K

Bid / Ask

2% / 4%

Spread

1.20pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Bitcoin Up or Down on March 22?

March

Full event →
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on March 22?
55%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?
52%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 March 16-22?
52%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on March 22?
20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?
18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on March 22?
10%
$80,000 in March?
9%
$71,000 on March 22?
8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?
7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 16-22?
6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 22?
2%
$85,000 in March?
2%
$72,000 on March 22?
2%
less than $64,000 on March 23?
2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?
2%
$73,000 on March 22?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 22?
1%
$90,000 in March?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 16-22?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on March 22?
1%
$74,000 on March 22?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on March 22?
1%
$95,000 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March?
0%
$100,000 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 16-22?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March?
0%
$150,000 in March?
0%
$105,000 in March?
0%
$110,000 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March?
0%
$75,000 on March 22?
0%
$77,000 on March 22?
0%
$76,000 on March 22?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 16-22?
0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 22?
0%
less than $62,000 on March 22?
0%

40 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Mar 22, 2026

Current

2% YES (-0.3pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 3%99%
Buy YES@ 3¢
Edge

+17.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO@ 97¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+17.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 22?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $21K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.20 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 22?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1678573

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