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Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 23?
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Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 23?

Closed March 23, 2026

Polymarket Price

80%YES
20%NO

Volume 24h

$28K

Liquidity

$20K

Bid / Ask

87% / 88%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

98%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-1.0pp
confidence25%
methodbayesian

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 23?

March

Full event →
above $2,100 on March 23?
100%
above $1,800 on March 23?
100%
above $2,000 on March 23?
100%
above $1,900 on March 23?
100%
above $1,800 on March 24?
100%
above $1,900 on March 24?
99%
above $2,000 on March 24?
98%
above $2,100 on March 24?
81%
above $2,200 on March 24?
31%
above $2,300 on March 24?
6%
above $2,400 on March 24?
1%
above $2,500 on March 24?
0%
above $2,600 on March 24?
0%
above $2,400 on March 23?
0%
above $2,300 on March 23?
0%
above $2,200 on March 23?
0%
above $2,500 on March 23?
0%
between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 23?
0%
above $2,700 on March 24?
0%
above $2,800 on March 24?
0%
above $2,600 on March 23?
0%

21 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+22.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

78% YES

Mar 22, 2026

Trough probability

69% YES — lowest in period

Mar 22, 2026

Biggest move: -17.5pp

89% → 72%

Mar 23, 2026

Peak probability

100% YES — highest in period

Mar 23, 2026

Current

100% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 80%99%
Buy YES@ 80¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 20¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 23?" at 80% YES / 20% NO. In the last 24 hours, $28K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 23?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 80%, NO 20%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1607587

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Correlated Markets

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Event Cluster

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