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Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 23?
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Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 23?

Closes March 23, 2026

Polymarket Price

13%YES
87%NO

Volume 24h

$94K

Liquidity

$18K

Bid / Ask

2% / 2%

Spread

0.40pp

Expert Signal

8%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-39.8pp
confidence40%
methodbayesian

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March?

March

Full event →
above $1,800 on March 23?
100%
above $1,800 on March 24?
99%
above $1,900 on March 23?
98%
above $1,900 on March 24?
98%
above $2,000 on March 23?
94%
above $2,000 on March 24?
90%
above $2,100 on March 23?
67%
above $2,100 on March 24?
59%
$2,400 in March?
24%
above $2,200 on March 24?
21%
above $2,200 on March 23?
13%
above $2,300 on March 24?
5%
above $2,400 on March 24?
2%
between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 23?
1%
above $2,300 on March 23?
1%
above $2,500 on March 24?
1%
between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 23?
1%
above $2,600 on March 24?
0%
above $2,400 on March 23?
0%
less than $1,800 on March 23?
0%
above $2,500 on March 23?
0%
above $2,700 on March 24?
0%
above $2,600 on March 23?
0%
above $2,800 on March 24?
0%
above $2,700 on March 23?
0%

25 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+7.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

4% YES

Mar 22, 2026

Biggest move: +11.2pp

1% → 12%

Mar 23, 2026

Current

12% YES (+11.2pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 13%99%
Buy YES@ 13¢
Edge

+2.8%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO@ 87¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.8% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 23?" at 13% YES / 87% NO. In the last 24 hours, $94K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 8%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 23?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 13%, NO 87%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1607593

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Venue Divergence

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Event Cluster

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