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Markets/Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
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Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

2%YES
98%NO

Volume 24h

$256

Liquidity

$12K

Bid / Ask

2% / 2%

Spread

0.40pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats…

2026

Full event →
below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm
35%
between 195 and 199 House seats after the 202
14%
between 190 and 194 House seats after the 202
14%
50
13%
48
12%
between 205 and 209 House seats after the 202
11%
51
11%
between 200 and 204 House seats after the 202
10%
52
8%
53
7%
between 210 and 214 House seats after the 202
6%
54
3%
55
2%
57 or more
2%
56
2%
between 215 and 219 House seats after the 202
2%
between 220 and 224 House seats after the 202
2%
230 or more
1%
between 225 and 229 House seats after the 202
0%

19 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-0.3pp

Key Moments

First recorded

2% YES

Mar 14, 2026

Current

1% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 14, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 2%99%
Buy YES@ 2¢

-9.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 98¢
Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly9.1%
½ Kelly4.5%
Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 9.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $256 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/943829

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