Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Closes April 12, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$6K
Liquidity
$14K
Bid / Ask
4% / 5%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
4%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential…
2026
26 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
9% YES
Mar 10, 2026
Trough probability
1% YES — lowest in period
Mar 13, 2026
Biggest move: -5.1pp
9% → 4%
Mar 10, 2026
Current
5% YES (+0.2pp recent)
Mar 19, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-4.8%
EV per $ wagered
+0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/947291
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