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Markets/Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?
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Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?

Closes April 28, 2026

Polymarket Price

79%YES
22%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$4K

Bid / Ask

78% / 79%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

79%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April…

April 2026

Full event →
no change in Fed interest rates after the Apr
95%
no change in Fed interest rates after the Jun
84%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic ra
79%
no change in Fed interest rates after the Jul
77%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25
62%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates a
36%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bp
16%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bp
9%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bp
6%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bp
6%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ b
3%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ b
2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bp
1%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+
1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ b
1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ b
1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ b
1%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after
1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ b
0%

19 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 79%99%
Buy YES@ 79¢
Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly2.3%
½ Kelly1.2%
Buy NO@ 21¢

-2.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 2.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?" at 79% YES / 21% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 79%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 28, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 79%, NO 21%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1288110

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