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Markets/Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on March 22?
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Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on March 22?

Closes March 23, 2026

Polymarket Price

43%YES
57%NO

Volume 24h

$4K

Liquidity

$9K

Bid / Ask

38% / 42%

Spread

4.00pp

Expert Signal

43%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Bitcoin Up or Down on March 22?

March

Full event →
above $66,000 on March 22?
100%
above $64,000 on March 22?
100%
above $62,000 on March 22?
100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10AM ET
100%
above $68,000 on March 22?
100%
above $66,000 on March 23?
89%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?
51%
$70,000 on March 22?
43%
above $70,000 on March 23?
31%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?
16%
$71,000 on March 22?
14%
$80,000 in March?
9%
above $72,000 on March 23?
8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?
7%
$72,000 on March 22?
3%
$85,000 in March?
2%
above $74,000 on March 23?
2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?
2%
$73,000 on March 22?
1%
$90,000 in March?
1%
above $76,000 on March 23?
1%
$74,000 on March 22?
1%
$95,000 in March?
0%
$100,000 in March?
0%
$150,000 in March?
0%
$110,000 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March?
0%
$105,000 in March?
0%
$77,000 on March 22?
0%
$75,000 on March 22?
0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 22?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?
0%
above $78,000 on March 23?
0%
$76,000 on March 22?
0%
above $72,000 on March 22?
0%
above $74,000 on March 22?
0%
above $70,000 on March 22?
0%
above $76,000 on March 22?
0%
less than $62,000 on March 22?
0%
above $80,000 on March 23?
0%
above $82,000 on March 23?
0%
above $84,000 on March 23?
0%
above $78,000 on March 22?
0%
greater than $80,000 on March 22?
0%
above $80,000 on March 22?
0%
above $82,000 on March 22?
0%

46 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+1.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

40% YES

Mar 22, 2026

Current

41% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 43%99%
Buy YES@ 43¢
Edge

+1.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 57¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on March 22?" at 43% YES / 57% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 43%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on March 22?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 43%, NO 57%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1678563

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Venue Divergence

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Correlated Markets

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Event Cluster

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