Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 8?
Closes April 8, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing BTC -0.3% ↓, S&P +0.2% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$19K
Liquidity
$19K
Bid / Ask
2% / 3%
Spread
0.90pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 8?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $19K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.90 percentage points. The market closes on April 8, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-08). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 8?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1817348
This event has 35 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 8?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 8?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 8?: 100%.
price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on Apri
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
7% YES
Apr 1, 2026
Trough probability
1% YES — lowest in period
Apr 7, 2026
Biggest move: +10.0pp
1% → 11%
Apr 8, 2026
Current
3% YES (+0.9pp recent)
Apr 8, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+11.1%
EV per $ wagered
-0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this