Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Closes April 15, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$80K
Liquidity
$36K
Bid / Ask
32% / 33%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
33%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
April
7 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
45% YES
Mar 12, 2026
Trough probability
18% YES — lowest in period
Mar 19, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
51%
Mar 12, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
46%
Mar 13, 2026
Biggest move: -24.5pp
51% → 27%
Mar 13, 2026
Peak probability
51% YES — highest in period
Mar 12, 2026
Current
32% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 25, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.5%
EV per $ wagered
-0.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?" at 33% YES / 67% NO. In the last 24 hours, $80K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 33%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 15, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-25). "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 33%, NO 67%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1567746
Go Deeper
Entity Hub
All related markets, signals, and news in one view.
Forecaster Signals
See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.
Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.