Military action against Iran ends on March 31, 2026?
Closes March 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$53K
Liquidity
$12K
Bid / Ask
7% / 8%
Spread
1.10pp
Expert Signal
6%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Military action against Iran ends on March 31, 2026?
April
5 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
49% YES
Mar 12, 2026
Trough probability
2% YES — lowest in period
Mar 22, 2026
Biggest move: -45.0pp
49% → 4%
Mar 12, 2026
Current
7% YES (+1.7pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-6.3%
EV per $ wagered
+0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Military action against Iran ends on March 31, 2026?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $53K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 1.10 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Military action against Iran ends on March 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1551489
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Forecaster Signals
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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