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Markets/Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?
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Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

Closes July 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

94%YES
7%NO

Volume 24h

$53K

Liquidity

$70K

Bid / Ask

93% / 94%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

94%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Over $6M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

Full event →
Over $6M committed to the P2P Protocol public
100%
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public
97%
Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
94%
Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
90%
Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
83%
Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
79%
Over $18M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
79%
Over $20M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
71%
Over $25M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
52%
Over $30M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
47%
Over $35M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
44%
Over $40M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
39%
Over $50M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
30%
Over $60M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
29%
Over $120M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
19%
Over $80M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
17%
Over $100M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
17%
Over $160M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
14%
Over $140M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
6%
Over $200M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
6%
Over $180M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
4%

21 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+33.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

61% YES

Mar 19, 2026

Trough probability

32% YES — lowest in period

Mar 26, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

37%

Mar 26, 2026

Biggest move: +43.5pp

46% → 90%

Mar 26, 2026

Peak probability

94% YES — highest in period

Mar 26, 2026

Current

94% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 27, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 94%99%
Buy YES@ 94¢
Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly7.7%
½ Kelly3.8%
Buy NO@ 6¢

-7.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 7.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?" at 94% YES / 6% NO. In the last 24 hours, $53K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 94%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on July 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-27). "Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 94%, NO 6%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1591768

Correlated Markets

Explore all →
↑ 0.97

Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

↑ 0.95

Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

↑ 0.93

Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

↑ 0.92

Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

Go Deeper

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Forecaster Signals

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Venue Divergence

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Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.

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Event Cluster

All markets about the same event across venues.

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Download 90d CSV

Full price history for your own analysis.