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Markets/Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?
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Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

Closes July 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

97%YES
3%NO

Volume 24h

$73K

Liquidity

$22K

Bid / Ask

92% / 95%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

97%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Over $1M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

Full event →
Over $1M committed to the P2P Protocol public
100%
Over $2M committed to the P2P Protocol public
100%
Over $4M committed to the P2P Protocol public
100%
Over $3M committed to the P2P Protocol public
100%
Over $6M committed to the P2P Protocol public
99%
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public
92%
Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
89%
Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
87%
Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
80%
Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
77%
Over $18M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
66%
Over $20M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
61%
Over $25M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
56%
Over $30M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
38%
Over $35M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
37%
Over $40M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
33%
Over $50M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
21%
Over $60M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
15%
Over $80M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
10%
Over $100M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
7%
Over $120M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
7%
Over $180M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
5%
Over $140M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
4%
Over $160M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
3%
Over $200M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
1%

25 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+34.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

63% YES

Mar 19, 2026

Trough probability

41% YES — lowest in period

Mar 26, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

42%

Mar 26, 2026

Biggest move: +41.5pp

46% → 87%

Mar 26, 2026

Current

97% YES (+6.3pp recent)

Mar 26, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 97%99%
Buy YES@ 97¢

-0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 3¢
Edge

+9.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.3%
½ Kelly0.1%
Buy NO—+9.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?" at 97% YES / 3% NO. In the last 24 hours, $73K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 97%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on July 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 97%, NO 3%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1591767

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Venue Divergence

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Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.

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Event Cluster

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