Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?
Closes January 1, 2027
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$17K
Liquidity
$53K
Bid / Ask
16% / 18%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
17%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?" at 17% YES / 83% NO. In the last 24 hours, $17K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 17%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 17%, NO 83%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/701494
This event has 26 active outcome markets. December 31, 2026: 76%, December 31, 2026: 65%, December 31, 2026: 50%.
Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
18% YES
Mar 1, 2026
Peak probability
24% YES — highest in period
Mar 17, 2026
Current
17% YES (-0.5pp recent)
Mar 31, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this