Markets/Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March?

Data as of Mar 24, 2026, 08:22 AM UTC

Closes April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

3%YES

97%NO

Volume 24h

$230K

Liquidity

$156K

Bid / Ask

2% / 2%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+2.6pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?

March

Full event →

23 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-10.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

13% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Trough probability

2% YES — lowest in period

Mar 23, 2026

Biggest move: +15.0pp

10% → 25%

Mar 4, 2026

Peak probability

25% YES — highest in period

Mar 4, 2026

Current

3% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Mar 24, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 3%99%

Buy YES@ 3¢

Edge

+11.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.3%

½ Kelly0.2%

Buy NO@ 97¢

-0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+11.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $230K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1473063