Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Closes November 7, 2028
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$9K
Liquidity
$317K
Bid / Ask
11% / 11%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
11%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Democratic win the Presidency in 2028?
2028
38 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
8% YES
Feb 24, 2026
Peak probability
18% YES — highest in period
Mar 11, 2026
Current
11% YES (+0.1pp recent)
Mar 26, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.9%
EV per $ wagered
-0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $9K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on November 7, 2028.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/561234
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