Markets/Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?

Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 03:17 PM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

21%YES

80%NO

Volume 24h

$166

Liquidity

$11K

Bid / Ask

19% / 22%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

21%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will no listed leader be out before 2027?

2027

Full event →

24 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

28% YES

Mar 15, 2026

Trough probability

21% YES — lowest in period

Mar 15, 2026

Biggest move: +7.0pp

21% → 28%

Mar 16, 2026

Current

27% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Mar 19, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 21%99%

Buy YES@ 21¢

Edge

+2.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 80¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?" at 21% YES / 79% NO. In the last 24 hours, $166 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 21%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 21%, NO 79%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1485230