Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 23?

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 23?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 08:29 AM UTC

Closes March 23, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

89%YES

12%NO

Volume 24h

$31K

Liquidity

$27K

Bid / Ask

95% / 95%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

87%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 23?

March

Full event →

24 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+2.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

92% YES

Mar 16, 2026

Trough probability

76% YES — lowest in period

Mar 22, 2026

Biggest move: +15.0pp

76% → 91%

Mar 23, 2026

Peak probability

98% YES — highest in period

Mar 21, 2026

Current

94% YES (+7.6pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 89%99%

Buy YES@ 89¢

Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly4.3%

½ Kelly2.2%

Buy NO@ 12¢

-4.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 4.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 23?" at 89% YES / 11% NO. In the last 24 hours, $31K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 87%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 23?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 89%, NO 11%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1607675