Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
Closes September 13, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$199K
Liquidity
$15K
Bid / Ask
5% / 5%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
5%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will ReLebanon win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese…
2026
24 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
5% YES
Mar 23, 2026
Current
5% YES (+0.1pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $199K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on September 13, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/811720
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