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Markets/Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win 45+ seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?
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Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win 45+ seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?

Closes March 22, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES
98%NO

Volume 24h

$972

Liquidity

$6K

Bid / Ask

0% / 3%

Spread

2.80pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence0%
methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Fidesz-KDNP win <70 seats in the Hungarian…

Full event →

11 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

No historical data yet

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 2%99%
Buy YES@ 2¢
Edge

+21.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO@ 98¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+21.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win 45+ seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $972 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 2.80 percentage points. The market closes on March 22, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win 45+ seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1562210