Markets/Will Fidesz-KDNP win 100-114 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?

Will Fidesz-KDNP win 100-114 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 01:58 AM UTC

Closes April 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

19%YES

82%NO

Volume 24h

$525

Liquidity

$21K

Bid / Ask

18% / 19%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

19%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Fidesz-KDNP win <70 seats in the Hungarian…

114

19%

16%

10%

129

130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly

45+ seats in the Slovenian National Assembly

11 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+2.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

16% YES

Mar 19, 2026

Current

18% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 20, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 19%99%

Buy YES@ 19¢

Edge

+2.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 82¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Fidesz-KDNP win 100-114 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?" at 19% YES / 81% NO. In the last 24 hours, $525 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 19%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Fidesz-KDNP win 100-114 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 19%, NO 81%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1570888