Will Fidesz-KDNP win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?
Closes April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$250
Liquidity
$13K
Bid / Ask
14% / 17%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
16%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Fidesz-KDNP win <70 seats in the Hungarian…
11 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+3.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
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Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Fidesz-KDNP win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?" at 16% YES / 84% NO. In the last 24 hours, $250 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 16%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Fidesz-KDNP win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 16%, NO 84%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1570885
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