Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win <30 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?
Closes March 22, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$7K
Liquidity
$12K
Bid / Ask
83% / 86%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
85%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Fidesz-KDNP win <70 seats in the Hungarian…
11 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
-3.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win <30 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?" at 85% YES / 15% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 85%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 22, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win <30 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 85%, NO 15%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1562206
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