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Markets/Will Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?
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Will Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?

Closes April 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

23%YES
78%NO

Volume 24h

$122

Liquidity

$8K

Bid / Ask

21% / 24%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

23%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence0%
methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Fidesz-KDNP win <70 seats in the Hungarian…

Full event →

11 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

No historical data yet

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 23%99%
Buy YES@ 23¢
Edge

+2.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 78¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+2.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?" at 23% YES / 77% NO. In the last 24 hours, $122 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 23%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 23%, NO 77%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1570886