Markets/Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC

Closes June 17, 2026

Polymarket Price

84%YES

17%NO

Volume 24h

$32K

Liquidity

$94K

Bid / Ask

83% / 84%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

84%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April…

April 2026

Full event →

no change in Fed interest rates after the Apr

94%

no change in Fed interest rates after the Jun

84%

No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates a

38%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bp

11%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bp

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ b

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bp

Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ b

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ b

Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ b

12 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+24.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

59% YES

Mar 9, 2026

Biggest move: +26.5pp

61% → 88%

Mar 18, 2026

Peak probability

88% YES — highest in period

Mar 18, 2026

Current

84% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 84%99%

Buy YES@ 84¢

Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly3.0%

½ Kelly1.5%

Buy NO@ 17¢

-3.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 3.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?" at 84% YES / 16% NO. In the last 24 hours, $32K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 84%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 17, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 84%, NO 16%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/906974