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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 25?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 25?

Closes March 25, 2026

Polymarket Price

6%YES
94%NO

Volume 24h

$7K

Liquidity

$24K

Bid / Ask

5% / 6%

Spread

0.90pp

Expert Signal

6%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Bitcoin Up or Down on March 23?

March

Full event →
above $64,000 on March 23?
100%
above $66,000 on March 23?
100%
above $68,000 on March 23?
99%
above $64,000 on March 24?
98%
above $62,000 on March 25?
98%
above $64,000 on March 25?
97%
above $66,000 on March 24?
97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 23?
96%
above $66,000 on March 25?
93%
above $68,000 on March 24?
89%
above $68,000 on March 25?
83%
above $70,000 on March 23?
77%
above $70,000 on March 24?
65%
above $70,000 on March 25?
62%
above $72,000 on March 25?
36%
above $72,000 on March 24?
31%
above $72,000 on March 23?
17%
above $74,000 on March 25?
16%
above $74,000 on March 24?
9%
above $76,000 on March 25?
6%
above $76,000 on March 24?
3%
above $74,000 on March 23?
1%
above $78,000 on March 25?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 23?
1%
between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 23?
1%
above $80,000 on March 25?
0%
above $78,000 on March 24?
0%
above $80,000 on March 24?
0%
above $76,000 on March 23?
0%
less than $64,000 on March 23?
0%
above $82,000 on March 25?
0%
above $78,000 on March 23?
0%
above $84,000 on March 24?
0%
above $82,000 on March 24?
0%
above $80,000 on March 23?
0%
above $84,000 on March 23?
0%

36 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 6%99%
Buy YES@ 6¢
Edge

+4.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.3%
½ Kelly0.1%
Buy NO@ 94¢

-0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+4.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 25?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 0.90 percentage points. The market closes on March 25, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 25?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1640449

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