Starmer approval Up or Down in April?
Closes April 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +1.9pp above current market price; market at 42% may be underpriced with macro signals showing S&P +1.0% ↑, VIX -2.7% ↓, 10Y yield -1bps ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$520
Liquidity
$4K
Bid / Ask
42% / 43%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
43%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Starmer approval Up or Down in April?" at 43% YES / 57% NO. In the last 24 hours, $520 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 43%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-05). "Starmer approval Up or Down in April?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 43%, NO 57%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1747249
This event has 58 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 5?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 5?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 5?: 100%.
Starmer approval Up or Down in April?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.9%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this