Bitcoin Up or Down on April 9?
Closes April 9, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +0.7pp above current market price; market at 57% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +0.4% ↑, ETH +0.1% ↑, S&P -0.1% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$172K
Liquidity
$35K
Bid / Ask
36% / 37%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
39%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Bitcoin Up or Down on April 9?" at 39% YES / 61% NO. In the last 24 hours, $172K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 39%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 9, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Bitcoin Up or Down on April 9?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 39%, NO 61%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1908668
This event has 38 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 9?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 9?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 9?: 100%.
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 9?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.8%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this