Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 15?
Closes April 15, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +3.2pp above current market price; market at 43% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +0.9% ↑, ETH +0.9% ↑, S&P +0.5% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$28K
Liquidity
$19K
Bid / Ask
44% / 47%
Spread
2.40pp
Expert Signal
39%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 15?" at 43% YES / 57% NO. In the last 24 hours, $28K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 39%. The bid-ask spread is 2.40 percentage points. The market closes on April 15, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 15?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 43%, NO 57%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1919260
This event has 35 active outcome markets. price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 15: 100%, price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 14: 100%, price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 14: 100%.
price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 15?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
36% YES
Apr 14, 2026
Biggest move: -6.5pp
43% → 37%
Apr 14, 2026
Peak probability
43% YES — highest in period
Apr 14, 2026
Current
36% YES (-1.2pp recent)
Apr 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
+0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this