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Markets/Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on April 12?
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Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on April 12?

Closes April 13, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
2%FIS
3ppvs market 5%
overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -3.1pp below current market price; market at 5% may be overpriced with macro signals showing BTC -2.5% ↓, ETH -3.4% ↓, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC -2.5% ↓, ETH -3.4% ↓, S&P -0.2% ↓
-6.2pp
Live compute06:43 PM

Polymarket Price

4%YES
96%NO

Volume 24h

$21K

Liquidity

$13K

Bid / Ask

4% / 6%

Spread

1.40pp

Expert Signal

5%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on April 12?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $21K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 1.40 percentage points. The market closes on April 13, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on April 12?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1953298

Outcome Markets35 markets

This event has 35 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 12: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 12: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 12: 100%.

Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on April 12?

4%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

6% YES

Apr 12, 2026

Current

5% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Apr 12, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 4%99%
Buy YES@ 4¢

-8.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 96¢
Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly8.0%
½ Kelly4.0%
Buy NO+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 8.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this