Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 24?

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 24?

Data as of Mar 24, 2026, 12:09 AM UTC

Closes March 24, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

95%YES

5%NO

Volume 24h

$114K

Liquidity

$30K

Bid / Ask

49% / 50%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

50%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 23?

March

Full event →

24 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+6.3pp

Key Moments

First recorded

90% YES

Mar 17, 2026

Trough probability

46% YES — lowest in period

Mar 23, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

48%

Mar 22, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

49%

Mar 23, 2026

Biggest move: +37.5pp

57% → 95%

Mar 23, 2026

Current

96% YES (+2.3pp recent)

Mar 24, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 95%99%

Buy YES@ 95¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 5¢

Edge

+8.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%

½ Kelly0.2%

Buy NO—+8.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 24?" at 95% YES / 5% NO. In the last 24 hours, $114K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 50%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 24?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 95%, NO 5%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1628632