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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 23?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 23?

Closes March 23, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

16%YES
85%NO

Volume 24h

$189K

Liquidity

$34K

Bid / Ask

13% / 14%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

14%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 23?

March

Full event →
above $64,000 on March 23?
99%
above $66,000 on March 23?
95%
above $64,000 on March 24?
94%
above $66,000 on March 24?
82%
above $68,000 on March 23?
65%
above $68,000 on March 24?
59%
above $70,000 on March 24?
31%
above $70,000 on March 23?
15%
above $72,000 on March 24?
11%
above $74,000 on March 24?
3%
above $72,000 on March 23?
2%
between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 23?
2%
above $76,000 on March 24?
0%
above $74,000 on March 23?
0%
above $78,000 on March 23?
0%
above $76,000 on March 23?
0%
above $80,000 on March 24?
0%
above $84,000 on March 24?
0%
above $80,000 on March 23?
0%
above $78,000 on March 24?
0%
above $82,000 on March 23?
0%
above $82,000 on March 24?
0%
between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 23?
0%
above $84,000 on March 23?
0%

24 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-58.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

73% YES

Mar 16, 2026

Trough probability

8% YES — lowest in period

Mar 23, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

44%

Mar 19, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Mar 20, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

33%

Mar 22, 2026

Biggest move: -24.5pp

57% → 33%

Mar 22, 2026

Peak probability

88% YES — highest in period

Mar 17, 2026

Current

14% YES (+7.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 16%99%
Buy YES@ 16¢
Edge

+3.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 85¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+3.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 23?" at 16% YES / 84% NO. In the last 24 hours, $189K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 23?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 16%, NO 84%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1607681

Correlated Markets

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↓ -0.99

Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 March 16-22?

↓ -0.97

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?

↑ 0.95

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 23?

↓ -0.93

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Venue Divergence

Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.

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Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.

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Event Cluster

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Full price history for your own analysis.