Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 12?
Closes April 12, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -1.1pp below current market price; market at 12% may be overpriced with macro signals showing BTC -0.4% ↓, ETH -0.2% ↓, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$8K
Liquidity
$21K
Bid / Ask
12% / 13%
Spread
1.30pp
Expert Signal
12%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 12?" at 20% YES / 80% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 1.30 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 12?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 20%, NO 80%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1879345
This event has 28 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 11: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 11: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 11: 100%.
price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on Apri
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
15% YES
Apr 11, 2026
Current
13% YES (-4.1pp recent)
Apr 11, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-1.7%
EV per $ wagered
+0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this