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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 12?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 12?

Closes April 12, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
11%FIS
1ppvs market 12%
overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -1.1pp below current market price; market at 12% may be overpriced with macro signals showing BTC -0.4% ↓, ETH -0.2% ↓, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC -0.4% ↓, ETH -0.2% ↓, S&P -0.2% ↓
-1.1pp
Live compute02:04 PM

Polymarket Price

20%YES
80%NO

Volume 24h

$8K

Liquidity

$21K

Bid / Ask

12% / 13%

Spread

1.30pp

Expert Signal

12%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 12?" at 20% YES / 80% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 1.30 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 12?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 20%, NO 80%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1879345

Outcome Markets28 markets

This event has 28 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 11: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 11: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 11: 100%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-2.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

15% YES

Apr 11, 2026

Current

13% YES (-4.1pp recent)

Apr 11, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 20%99%
Buy YES@ 20¢

-1.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 80¢
Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.7%
½ Kelly0.9%
Buy NO+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this