Bitcoin Up or Down on April 11?
Closes April 11, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing BTC -0.2% ↓, ETH +0.2% ↑, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$256K
Liquidity
$23K
Bid / Ask
96% / 98%
Spread
1.80pp
Expert Signal
96%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Bitcoin Up or Down on April 11?" at 96% YES / 4% NO. In the last 24 hours, $256K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 96%. The bid-ask spread is 1.80 percentage points. The market closes on April 11, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Bitcoin Up or Down on April 11?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 96%, NO 4%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1928733
This event has 28 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 11: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 11: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 11: 100%.
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 11?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
92% YES
Apr 11, 2026
Trough probability
77% YES — lowest in period
Apr 11, 2026
Biggest move: -15.0pp
92% → 77%
Apr 11, 2026
Current
88% YES (+11.0pp recent)
Apr 11, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.5%
EV per $ wagered
-11.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this