Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?
Closes January 1, 2027
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$53K
Bid / Ask
17% / 19%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
18%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?
December 2026
27 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
17% YES
Feb 25, 2026
Current
18% YES (-0.5pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?" at 18% YES / 82% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 18%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 18%, NO 82%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1339769
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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