Will Fidesz-KDNP win 115-129 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?
Closes April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$117
Liquidity
$9K
Bid / Ask
2% / 7%
Spread
4.90pp
Expert Signal
6%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Tisza win <70 seats in the Hungarian National…
2026
21 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
7% YES
Mar 19, 2026
Current
7% YES (+0.1pp recent)
Mar 20, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+3.1%
EV per $ wagered
-0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Fidesz-KDNP win 115-129 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $117 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 4.90 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Fidesz-KDNP win 115-129 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1570889
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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