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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 23?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 23?

Closes March 23, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

96%YES
4%NO

Volume 24h

$150K

Liquidity

$17K

Bid / Ask

96% / 97%

Spread

0.50pp

Expert Signal

96%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 23?

March

Full event →
above $64,000 on March 23?
96%
above $64,000 on March 24?
89%
above $66,000 on March 23?
82%
above $66,000 on March 24?
75%
above $68,000 on March 23?
51%
above $68,000 on March 24?
51%
above $70,000 on March 24?
26%
above $70,000 on March 23?
19%
between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 23?
14%
above $72,000 on March 24?
10%
less than $64,000 on March 23?
4%
above $72,000 on March 23?
3%
above $74,000 on March 24?
3%
above $78,000 on March 24?
1%
above $76,000 on March 24?
1%
above $80,000 on March 24?
1%
above $74,000 on March 23?
0%
above $76,000 on March 23?
0%
above $84,000 on March 24?
0%
above $82,000 on March 24?
0%
above $78,000 on March 23?
0%
above $80,000 on March 23?
0%
above $82,000 on March 23?
0%
above $84,000 on March 23?
0%

24 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-3.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

100% YES

Mar 21, 2026

Current

96% YES (-0.6pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 96%99%
Buy YES@ 96¢

-0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 4¢
Edge

+1.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.1%
½ Kelly0.0%
Buy NO—+1.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 23?" at 96% YES / 4% NO. In the last 24 hours, $150K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 96%. The bid-ask spread is 0.50 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 23?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 96%, NO 4%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1607674

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Venue Divergence

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Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.

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Event Cluster

All markets about the same event across venues.

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Full price history for your own analysis.