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Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 29?
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Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 29?

Closes March 29, 2026

Polymarket Price

18%YES
83%NO

Volume 24h

$68K

Liquidity

$18K

Bid / Ask

12% / 14%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

10%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-32.7pp
confidence40%
methodbayesian

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March?

March

Full event →
above $2,100 on March 24?
100%
above $1,900 on March 24?
100%
above $1,800 on March 24?
100%
above $2,000 on March 24?
100%
above $1,700 on March 25?
100%
above $1,800 on March 25?
99%
above $1,900 on March 25?
99%
above $1,700 on March 27?
99%
above $1,800 on March 27?
98%
above $1,800 on March 29?
97%
above $2,000 on March 25?
93%
above $1,900 on March 27?
93%
above $1,900 on March 29?
90%
above $2,000 on March 27?
80%
above $2,000 on March 29?
76%
above $2,100 on March 25?
56%
above $2,100 on March 27?
54%
above $2,100 on March 29?
53%
above $2,200 on March 29?
30%
above $2,200 on March 27?
26%
$2,400 in March?
18%
above $2,300 on March 29?
14%
above $2,200 on March 25?
11%
above $2,300 on March 27?
10%
above $2,400 on March 29?
5%
above $2,400 on March 27?
3%
above $2,500 on March 29?
2%
above $2,500 on March 27?
2%
above $2,600 on March 29?
2%
above $2,300 on March 25?
1%
above $2,400 on March 25?
0%
above $2,600 on March 27?
0%
above $2,500 on March 25?
0%
above $2,400 on March 24?
0%
above $2,200 on March 24?
0%
above $2,300 on March 24?
0%
less than $1,900 on March 24?
0%
above $2,600 on March 24?
0%
between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 24?
0%
above $2,500 on March 24?
0%
above $2,600 on March 25?
0%
between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 24?
0%
above $2,700 on March 25?
0%
above $2,700 on March 24?
0%
above $2,800 on March 24?
0%

45 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-3.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

17% YES

Mar 24, 2026

Current

14% YES (-2.5pp recent)

Mar 24, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 18%99%
Buy YES@ 18¢
Edge

+2.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 83¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 29?" at 18% YES / 82% NO. In the last 24 hours, $68K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 10%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 29, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 29?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 18%, NO 82%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1683302

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Venue Divergence

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Event Cluster

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