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Markets/Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?
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Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?

Closes January 1, 2027

Polymarket Price

10%YES
91%NO

Volume 24h

$3K

Liquidity

$69K

Bid / Ask

9% / 10%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

10%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?

December 2026

Full event →
$80,000 by December 31, 2026?
73%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2
71%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2
62%
$90,000 by December 31, 2026?
52%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2
50%
$100,000 by December 31, 2026?
39%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2
39%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2
28%
$110,000 by December 31, 2026?
28%
$120,000 by December 31, 2026?
19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2
18%
$130,000 by December 31, 2026?
15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2
14%
$140,000 by December 31, 2026?
11%
$160,000 by December 31, 2026?
10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2
9%
$170,000 by December 31, 2026?
9%
$180,000 by December 31, 2026?
8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2
7%
$190,000 by December 31, 2026?
7%
$200,000 by December 31, 2026?
5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2
5%
$250,000 by December 31, 2026?
4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 20
4%
$500,000 by December 31, 2026?
2%
$1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?
2%

26 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+2.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

7% YES

Mar 2, 2026

Current

10% YES (-1.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 10%99%
Buy YES@ 10¢
Edge

+5.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 91¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+5.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?" at 10% YES / 90% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 10%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 10%, NO 90%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/701490

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