Will Barack Obama announce a Presidential run before 2027?
Closes December 31, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -1.2pp below current market price; market at 4% may be overpriced with macro signals showing VIX -2.7% ↓, S&P -0.5% ↓, DXY +0.2% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$4K
Liquidity
$11K
Bid / Ask
4% / 4%
Spread
0.60pp
Expert Signal
4%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Barack Obama announce a Presidential run before 2027?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.60 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-05). "Will Barack Obama announce a Presidential run before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/692283
This event has 37 active outcome markets. Mark Kelly announce a Presidential run before: 20%, Josh Hawley announce a presidential run befor: 19%, Brian Kemp announce a presidential run before: 14%.
Barack Obama announce a Presidential run before 2027?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-2.4%
EV per $ wagered
+0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this