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Markets/Will Brian Kemp announce a presidential run before 2027?
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Will Brian Kemp announce a presidential run before 2027?

Closes December 31, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 2 signals
16%FIS
+1ppvs market 15%
underpriced

ForecastMind sees this +0.9pp above current market price; market at 15% may be underpriced with macro signals showing VIX +2.7% ↑, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroVIX +2.7% ↑, S&P -0.2% ↓
+3.5pp
HistoryUSA very_negative CVL → -1.0pp avg (n=74) [recent event]
-1.0pp
Live compute08:45 AM

Polymarket Price

15%YES
85%NO

Volume 24h

$1K

Liquidity

$9K

Bid / Ask

14% / 16%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

15%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Brian Kemp announce a presidential run before 2027?" at 15% YES / 85% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 15%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Will Brian Kemp announce a presidential run before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 15%, NO 85%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/692309

Outcome Markets50 markets

This event has 50 active outcome markets. Liz Cheney announce a Presidential run before: 34%, Beto O’Rourke announce a Presidential run bef: 25%, Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential run befo: 22%.

Brian Kemp announce a presidential run before 2027?

15%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 15%99%
Buy YES@ 15¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 85¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this