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Markets/Will Tulsi Gabbard announce a presidential run before 2027?
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Will Tulsi Gabbard announce a presidential run before 2027?

Closes December 31, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence
8%FIS
vs
9%Market
overpriced 1.5pp
2 signals
Key Drivers
MacroVIX -2.7% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑, DXY +0.2% ↑
-2.2pp43%
HistoryUSA very_negative CVL → -1.0pp avg (n=74) [recent event]
n=74 historical instances
-1.0pp57%

ForecastMind sees this -1.5pp below current market price; market at 9% may be overpriced with macro signals showing VIX -2.7% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑, DXY +0.2% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Live compute04:46 PM

Polymarket Price

9%YES
91%NO

Volume 24h

$4K

Liquidity

$9K

Bid / Ask

8% / 10%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

9%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Tulsi Gabbard announce a presidential run before 2027?" at 9% YES / 91% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 9%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-05). "Will Tulsi Gabbard announce a presidential run before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 9%, NO 91%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/692301

Outcome Markets43 markets

This event has 43 active outcome markets. Josh Hawley announce a presidential run befor: 19%, Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run be: 16%, J.B. Pritzker announce a Presidential run bef: 15%.

Tulsi Gabbard announce a presidential run before 2027?

9%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 9%99%
Buy YES@ 9¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 91¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this