Will John Thune announce a presidential run before 2027?
Closes December 31, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -1.5pp below current market price; market at 10% may be overpriced with macro signals showing VIX -2.7% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑, DXY +0.2% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$16K
Bid / Ask
10% / 11%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
11%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will John Thune announce a presidential run before 2027?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-05). "Will John Thune announce a presidential run before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/692317
This event has 43 active outcome markets. Josh Hawley announce a presidential run befor: 19%, Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run be: 16%, J.B. Pritzker announce a Presidential run bef: 15%.
John Thune announce a presidential run before 2027?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+4.8%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this