Will Kristi Noem announce a presidential run before 2027?
Closes December 31, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -1.5pp below current market price; market at 12% may be overpriced with macro signals showing VIX -2.7% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑, DXY +0.2% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$75
Liquidity
$9K
Bid / Ask
9% / 15%
Spread
5.80pp
Expert Signal
12%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Kristi Noem announce a presidential run before 2027?" at 12% YES / 88% NO. In the last 24 hours, $75 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 5.80 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-05). "Will Kristi Noem announce a presidential run before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 12%, NO 88%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/692318
This event has 43 active outcome markets. Josh Hawley announce a presidential run befor: 19%, Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run be: 16%, J.B. Pritzker announce a Presidential run bef: 15%.
Kristi Noem announce a presidential run before 2027?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.8%
EV per $ wagered
+0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this