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Markets/Will LeBron James announce a Presidential run before 2027?
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Will LeBron James announce a Presidential run before 2027?

Closes December 31, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence
2%FIS
vs
2%Market
2 signals
Key Drivers
MacroVIX -2.7% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑, DXY +0.2% ↑
-2.2pp43%
HistoryUSA very_negative CVL → -1.0pp avg (n=74) [recent event]
n=74 historical instances
-1.0pp57%

Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing VIX -2.7% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑, DXY +0.2% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Live compute04:47 PM

Polymarket Price

2%YES
98%NO

Volume 24h

$14K

Liquidity

$12K

Bid / Ask

2% / 3%

Spread

0.90pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will LeBron James announce a Presidential run before 2027?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $14K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.90 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-05). "Will LeBron James announce a Presidential run before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/692288

Outcome Markets43 markets

This event has 43 active outcome markets. Josh Hawley announce a presidential run befor: 19%, Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run be: 16%, J.B. Pritzker announce a Presidential run bef: 15%.

LeBron James announce a Presidential run before 2027?

2%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

No historical data yet

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 2%99%
Buy YES@ 2¢

-11.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 98¢
Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly11.1%
½ Kelly5.6%
Buy NO+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 11.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this